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DSI and the Wharton School report outlines four scenarios for the future of biosciences

Philadelphia – Millions of people rely on you to find the cure for a common disease. What if you fail? Or system gridlock stalls bioscience advances, unleashing a race against time to save the sick?

Today's bioscience industry faces a series of possible dilemmas. But according to a new report by Decision Strategies International (DSI) and the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School, The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Their Implications for Human Healthcare, bioscience companies can prepare for the future, challenge current thinking and find ways to profit from uncertainty.

"This report captures the key insights of thought leaders on where the bioscience industry has been and where it might go," said Dr. Paul Schoemaker, chairman and CEO of DSI and research director of Wharton's Mack Center. "By examining these scenarios, the industry can better prepare and be in position to adapt to the multiple futures ahead."

In the report's "Where's the Beef" scenario, medical science is unable to cure many common diseases despite strong public pressure and support. Biomedicine and gene therapy in particular have not fulfilled their early promise despite decades of research.

"Science Held Hostage" points out the occurrence of scientific breakthroughs but public opposition and ever-increasing legal barriers prevent their commercialization. Moral or ethical concerns, especially in human gene manipulation, stall new products.

Advances take ages and sick people across the globe lose hope that future therapies can save them, according to "Bio Gridlock." There's great frustration at the lack of results even after decades of increasing research funding.

Finally, the "New Age of Medicine" scenario demonstrates the healing powers of vast database libraries that help match patients and treatments in a system of total lifelong patient care and personal monitoring. Increasingly, patients in developing nations gain access to this and sophisticated medical treatments.

Which future will prevail? That depends on how bioscience leaders, policymakers and others react to the challenges ahead.

"Whether your organization is a pharmaceutical firm, biotech startup, government agency, NGO or patient advocacy group, you need to think about the drivers that will shape the future," Schoemaker said. "Senior managers and strategic planners can use these four scenarios as a starting point to recreate real-life futures for their own organizations."

Representing nearly three years of work by more than 50 leaders from academia, government and the private sector, the report provides industry leaders with the strategic insights needed to develop, commercialize and deploy emerging life sciences technologies.

SOURCE: Decision Strategies International and The Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School